AVAX · 1H · SIDEWAYS
Price has been carving out a wide chop range for the entire month, oscillating between roughly 6.10 and 6.85, with no sustained directional conviction. The sharp spike to ~6.85 on July 25 followed by an immediate rejection back to current price at 6.577 is the most telling recent structure — buyers couldn't hold the breakout, and sellers pushed price right back into the middle of the range. The headline noting "Nasdaq Breaks Lower" reinforces the risk-off tone I'm seeing structurally, and mid-range on AVAX right now is exactly where I don't want to be trading. I'm waiting for price to reach one of the extremes before I commit to a direction — entering here gives me asymmetric risk in neither direction.
LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
6.60
Holding above 6.60 with a close above it on 1H confirms reclaim of the upper half of the range and puts 6.85 back in play.
Invalidation
6.40
Structure invalidated below 6.40.
Target 1
6.85
(swing high and range top).
Target 2
7.00
(prior swing zone from early July).
SHORT (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
6.60
Rejection at 6.60 with a close back below 6.50 confirms the failed breakout structure remains in control and opens the lower range.
Invalidation
6.85
Structure invalidated above 6.85.
Target 1
6.30
(recent consolidation low and reaction zone).
Target 2
6.10
(range floor).
Resistance: 6.60 / 6.85
Support: 6.40 / 6.10
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.