AVAX · 1H · DOWNTREND

Price collapsed from ~9.60 down to the ~6.40 range — a brutal, sustained sell-off across the entire visible structure with lower highs and lower lows at every step. Since bottoming near 6.40 around June 11, price has been chopping in a tight range between ~6.40 and ~7.00, but this is dead-cat territory — no impulsive recovery, just compression below the breakdown zone. Current price at 6.632 is mid-range in that consolidation, sitting below the entire prior downtrend structure. I'm not interested in catching any longs here — the macro structure is still heavily bearish and any bounces into the 6.90–7.00 zone are a gift for shorts. The one live news headline mentioning Bitcoin surging on an Iran ceasefire and Strategy's $100M buy is worth noting — that kind of crypto-wide bid could give AVAX a brief lift, but I'd use any push into resistance as a short entry, not a reason to get long.

Setup: SHORT (conditional)

- Entry: 6.90 — conditional on a push into resistance and rejection

- Stop Loss: 7.10

- Take Profit 1: 6.50

- Take Profit 2: 6.20

- Risk/Reward: 2.0:1

- Confidence: MEDIUM