ARB · 1H · DOWNTREND
The short from my Oct 24 read ran the full distance — the rally into the 0.1700–0.1729 zone triggered, the 1H close back below 0.1700 confirmed the rejection, and Target 1 at 0.1515 was reached. That setup is complete and I'm starting clean. What's in front of me now is a chart making lower highs from 0.2120 all the way to 0.1638 with no meaningful bounce holding. The daily trend is sideways by the higher-timeframe read, but on the 1H the structure is unambiguously bearish. The dense liquidation cluster at 0.1624 sits just below current price and is a waypoint — price sweeping it is more likely to accelerate than pause. Longs are still paying shorts at +0.0100% per 8h, buying dips into a chart that refuses to recover; that crowded long side is the squeeze fuel for another leg into the 0.1489 cluster. I'm not chasing at 0.1638 — I need a dead-cat bounce into resistance first, then a clean rejection.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.1665
On a rally to the 0.1665–0.1684 zone, a 1H close back below 0.1665 confirms the rejection — 0.1624 and 0.1567 are waypoints inside the move and likely acceleration points, not pauses.
Invalidation
0.1749
1H close above 0.1749 — the dense cluster there breaks and the downtrend structure is compromised (0.0084 above confirmation).
Target 1
0.1489
Dense liquidation cluster, full extension of the leg (0.0176 below confirmation).
Target 2
0.1489
N/a — no further structural cluster visible on this chart below 0.1489.
Resistance: 0.1665–0.1684 (nearest liquidation cluster, rejection zone) / 0.1749 (dense cluster, invalidation anchor)
Support: 0.1624 (dense cluster, waypoint) / 0.1567 (dense cluster, waypoint) / 0.1489 (dense cluster, Target 1)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.