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•Waiting for the triggerHow this is checked
DOGE · 1H · DOWNTREND
The long from my Sep 28 read has failed — invalidation at 0.0855 was reached, price continued lower to 0.0811, and the structure that supported that thesis is broken. I'm starting clean from here. What I see on this 30m chart (read as 1H structure) is a clear lower-high sequence from the 0.1059 spike in late September: 0.0998 → 0.0982 → 0.0935, now trading at 0.0861 after a sharp flush to 0.0811 on Oct 8-9. Price has bounced from that low but has printed only lower highs on the recovery — 0.0854, then 0.0870 area — and is sitting just above the 0.0841 liquidation cluster with dense clusters stacked above at 0.0878, 0.0911, and 0.0943. The bounce looks corrective, not impulsive, and the daily trend is sideways with no higher-timeframe confirmation for a sustained recovery. Funding is marginally long at 0.0092% per 8h — not extreme, but longs are paying, which tells me positioning hasn't been fully flushed despite the drop to 0.0811. I'm not chasing the bounce here. If price squeezes into the 0.0878 liquidation cluster and rejects, that gives me a short entry with structure behind it. If 0.0805 breaks on a close, the next meaningful support on this chart is the 0.0800 round number and then air below.
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SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.0878
Rejection at 0.0878 — the dense liquidation cluster — with a 1H close back below 0.0860 confirms the corrective bounce is exhausted and bearish structure resumes.
Invalidation
0.0911
1H close above 0.0911 — the next dense cluster above; that level reclaimed on a close means the squeeze has more momentum than this structure supports.
Target 1
0.0841
Dense liquidation cluster immediately below; expect a pause or temporary bid there.
Target 2
0.0805
Next dense liquidation cluster; this is where a breakdown gets real fuel.
Risk/Reward
0.4:1
Confidence
MEDIUM
Resistance: 0.0878 / 0.0911
Support: 0.0841 / 0.0805

This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.

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