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ARB · 1H · DOWNTREND
My previous long from Sep 30 triggered — confirmation at 0.2015 was reached per the SINCE THIS READ data — and that trade is still running. Price has since flushed to 0.1965, currently sitting at 0.1982, well below Target 1 at 0.2251 and with invalidation at 0.1805 intact. This is not a new setup. The daily trend is UP, the prior read is open, and I'm carrying it forward.
The structure on this 1H chart is ugly — all four EMAs in bearish stack, price grinding below the EMA 9/20/50/200 cluster, and the 0.20 round number providing no meaningful support. The flush into the dense liquidation cluster at 0.1961 (now REACHED per live data) is exactly the stop-hunt sweep I was looking for in the Sep 30 read. What matters now is whether price can close back above 0.2015 — that was and remains the structural line that converts the sweep into a valid long re-entry. Below 0.2015 I'm watching the 0.1886 dense cluster as the next magnet; above it, the path to 0.2122 (dense cluster, first real overhead supply) opens up.
Funding at 0.0100% per 8h is mild — longs are paying but not at a squeeze-inducing extreme, so no crowding signal strong enough to flip my bias. The dense clusters at 0.1886 and 0.1809 below keep invalidation where it was: a close below 0.1805 means daily structure is breaking, not digesting.
CONTINUATION SCENARIO
Carried forward from
2026
Wed, 30 Sep 2026 — LONG.
Confirmation
0.2015
Already met — 0.2015 was reached per SINCE THIS READ data.
Confidence
MEDIUM — daily trend is UP and the sweep happened as anticipated, but price has yet to reclaim 0.2015, and three dense liquidation clusters below (0.1961, 0.1886, 0.1809) mean the flush could extend before the bounce
Invalidation
0.1805
Target 1
0.2251
Target 2
0.2500
Resistance: 0.2026 / 0.2122
Support: 0.2015 / 0.1886

This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.

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