Analysis AI-generated

✓Target 2 reachedHow this is checked
TIA · 1H · DOWNTREND
Price has been in a sustained distribution phase since the July 10 highs around 0.4300, printing a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows all the way down to current levels at 0.3571. The most recent leg from 0.3900 is sharp and impulsive — no meaningful bounce, no consolidation, just clean waterfall selling into fresh multi-week lows. I'm not looking to catch this falling knife. The structure is bearish, the momentum is bearish, and the news context pulled for TIA is completely unrelated to the Celestia token — so I'm doing pure price action here.
My eye goes straight to the 0.3550–0.3560 zone as the immediate floor, which has barely held so far. A sustained close below that opens up a path toward 0.3400, which was the significant swing low visible in late June. I'm not fading this move — I want to see a dead-cat bounce back into the 0.3700–0.3750 range before I even think about getting short with structure behind me. Entering short right here at the lows gives me nothing to lean against and terrible R/R. I'm waiting for price to retrace into resistance before committing.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.3720
Bounce into 0.3720–0.3750 followed by a rejection and close back below 0.3700 confirms bearish structure.
Invalidation
0.3850
Sustained close above 0.3850 breaks the lower-high sequence and negates the thesis.
Target 1
0.3550
Current structural low.
Target 2
0.3400
Swing low from late June visible on chart.
Risk/Reward
(0.3700 − 0.3550) / (0.3850 − 0.3700) = 1.0:1 to T1 / ~2.0:1 to T2
Confidence
MEDIUM
Resistance: 0.3750 / 0.3900
Support: 0.3550 / 0.3400

This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.

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