TAO · 1H · DOWNTREND
The short from my last read is running exactly as written — the 235–237 rally zone never printed, confirmation never triggered, and yet price delivered Target 1 at 223.8 anyway as the downtrend simply continued without a bounce. That is a clean structural win for the thesis even without a formal entry. The daily trend is unambiguously down: lower highs and lower lows across the entire chart window, all four MAs stacked in bearish order and sloping down, and now price sitting at 224.6 with the dense liquidation cluster at 223.9 just swept. With that cluster spent and price at the lows of the visible range, I'm not chasing a short here — but I'm not looking for a long either. The question is whether price bounces into the falling MA stack so the short confirmation I was waiting for can finally print, or whether 211.1 gets hit first on a flush through the current low.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
232
On a rally to the 232–235 zone (the falling EMA 9/20 cluster, currently around 227–229 and declining into that band), a 1H close back below 232 confirms rejection at the MA stack and bearish continuation.
Invalidation
240
1H close above 240 — reclaims the EMA 50 and breaks the descending structure.
Target 1
211.1
The next dense liquidation cluster below, 20.9 points from confirmation vs. 8 points to invalidation.
Target 2
206.4
The liquidation cluster below 211.1, extended objective if 211.1 sweeps with momentum.
Resistance: 232–235 (falling EMA 9/20 cluster, rally-then-reject zone) / 240 (EMA 50, invalidation ceiling)
Support: 222 (current swing low) / 211.1 (dense liquidation cluster)
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.