SOL · 1H · UPTREND
My previous read hit Target 1 at 78.50 — that long played out clean. But what followed was a move I didn't have on my map: SOL ripped from the 75–78 range all the way to 104, a near-30-point vertical in a matter of days. Now price is at 92.25, well off the 104 high, printing a sequence of lower highs from that peak — 104 → ~98 → ~96 → current. The broader trend from the ~70 low is still intact, but this is a steep, extended move that's now pulling back hard, and I'm not chasing it. The news context confirms the $90 target that analysts flagged was already hit, and the SEC regulatory development is likely what fuelled the squeeze — that's a buy-the-news-sell-the-fact dynamic I have to respect here.
The liquidation map is critical for framing where this pullback resolves. There's a dense cluster at 91.19 just below current price — that's being tested right now and could act as a short-term floor if it holds. The next meaningful cluster is 89.19, and below that 83.93. On the upside, 95.70, 96.86, and 98.64 are all dense — that's a wall of liquidation fuel between ~96 and ~99, which also maps to the visible resistance shelf where price broke down from. Funding is still positive at 0.01% per 8h — longs are paying, but it's not extreme. That tells me the crowd is still leaning long, which makes a deeper flush to shake out weak hands plausible before any real recovery.
My read is that 91.19 is being swept right now, and if it doesn't hold, 89.00–89.20 is the next magnet. I'm not buying a falling knife mid-range between two liquidation clusters. I'm waiting for the pullback to find a floor at one of those levels with a structural reaction — a base, a double bottom, or a reclaim of the 91–92 zone after washing through it — before I have a clean long setup.
LONG (CONDITIONAL) SCENARIO
Confirmation
89.00
Price sweeps into the 89.00–89.20 cluster, then reclaims and closes above 91.19 on the 1H — that sequence (sweep low, reclaim key level) confirms the pullback is exhausted and bullish structure is reasserting.
Invalidation
83.93
1H close below 83.93 — that's the next dense liquidation cluster below and losing it means the correction is deeper than a healthy retracement off the 104 high.
Target 1
95.70
First dense liquidation cluster above, where a short squeeze from trapped shorts would most likely stall.
Target 2
98.64
Top of the liquidation wall, coinciding with the prior breakdown shelf visible around 97–99.
Risk/Reward
(95.70 − 91.19) / (91.19 − 83.93) = 4.51 / 7.26 ≈ 0.6:1 at the sweep-and-reclaim entry. That R/R is thin because the stop has to sit below 83.93 to clear the cluster — I'm sizing down or waiting for a tighter base to form at the 89–91 zone before committing.
Resistance: 95.70 / 98.64
Support: 91.19 / 89.19
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.