INJ · 1H · DOWNTREND
The short from my last read triggered cleanly — price rallied into the 8.05–8.15 zone, printed a 1H close back below 8.00 on Nov 10 at 21:00 UTC, then sold off hard, taking out 7.74 and running all the way to 7.358 before recovering. Target 1 at 7.27 was never quite touched, but the move did its work. Price is now sitting at 7.534, having bounced off that low and partially recovered, but every structural element still reads bearish: the sequence of lower highs since mid-October is unbroken, the bounce from the 7.36 low has stalled in the 7.50s, and there's a dense liquidation cluster sitting just below at 7.47 that price is hovering directly above. That cluster is thin ice — if it gives way, there's another at 6.65 and nothing much structural in between.
The two consecutive stopped-out longs I had on this name before the short finally worked tells me the pressure here is clearly to the downside. I'm not chasing the short at 7.534 with that dense cluster immediately below as a potential bounce trigger and the 7.17 cluster further down as a magnet. The setup I want is a relief rally back into supply, then a rejection confirming the next leg lower. Mid-range right now gives me no edge — the cluster below could fuel a temporary squeeze and blow a stop before resuming the trend.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
7.70
On a rally to the 7.70–7.80 zone, a 1H close back below 7.65 confirms the rejection — that band was structural support through October, flipped to resistance after the Nov breakdown, and the dense liquidation cluster at 7.47 sits just beneath to accelerate the move.
Invalidation
8.00
1H close above 8.00 — that reclaims the level that confirmed this short in the first place and breaks the sequence of lower highs.
Target 1
7.17
Dense liquidation cluster below, where the crowded long book gets swept and the move is most likely to stall.
Target 2
6.65
Next liquidation cluster below, extended target if 7.17 clears with momentum.
Risk/Reward
(7.65 − 7.17) / (8.00 − 7.65) = 0.48 / 0.35 = 1.4:1
Resistance: 7.70–7.80 / 8.00
Support: 7.47 / 7.17
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.