INJ · 1H · DOWNTREND
The structure here is clear — lower highs and lower lows from the July peak near 5.50 all the way down to the recent low around 4.20. The bounce off that 4.20 area has pushed price back up to 4.539, but I'm reading this as a relief rally inside a broken structure, not a reversal. The downtrend from early August is a sequence of failed recoveries: 5.15 rejected, 5.00 rejected, 4.70 rejected — each bounce gets sold. Price is now sitting just below the 4.62 dense liquidation cluster, and I don't see any structural reason for this bounce to be different from the last three. I'm not chasing this recovery — I'm waiting for the short setup to confirm.
The liquidation cluster at 4.62 is acting as a ceiling here, and that's exactly where I want to see rejection. A stop hunt into 4.62 that fails to close above it would be the signal — longs positioned into that cluster get flushed, price rolls back over, and the downtrend resumes. The 4.24 cluster below is the first magnet on the way down, and 4.01 is the real target. Mid-range longs at current price give me worse R/R and put me inside the noise — I'm letting price come to a structural level first.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
4.62
Rejection at the 4.62 dense liquidation cluster — a wick or failed close above 4.62 followed by a close back below 4.55 confirms bearish continuation.
Invalidation
4.70
Structure invalidated on a clean close above 4.70 — that reclaims the prior swing high and shifts the short-term structure.
Target 1
4.36
(dense liquidation cluster below — first structural draw on price).
Target 2
4.01
(dense liquidation cluster — full measured move target and prior support zone).
Risk/Reward
(4.62 − 4.36) / (4.70 − 4.62) = 0.26 / 0.08 = 3.3:1
Resistance: 4.62 / 4.70
Support: 4.36 / 4.24 / 4.01
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.