ETH · 1H · UPTREND
My previous short from September 3 was stopped out — price didn't follow through to 2,342 and has since reversed sharply, running from the 2,360s all the way back to 2,505. That's two consecutive stopped-out reads on the short side, and the message is clear: the lower-high structure I was trading broke, the 2,343 and 2,276 clusters got swept on the way down and have now been left behind as spent fuel, and price has reclaimed the mid-range with momentum. I'm not fighting this — the trend from the August 19–20 breakout base is still structurally intact, and this latest recovery off the September lows is a higher low relative to the August 28–29 lows. Price is now at 2,505, pressing into the 2,520 zone that was the swing high from the post-breakout range, and the 2,548 liquidation cluster sits just above as the next magnet.
The structure I'm reading: the August impulse took ETH from roughly 1,880 to 2,560 in a near-vertical move. Everything since has been a consolidation within that range — lower highs formed, then a flush toward 2,360, and now a recovery that is making higher lows off the September low. The current push is testing the top of the visible consolidation range, and the news backdrop — ETH up 5.5%, institutional buying from BMNR — is consistent with the price action. Funding at 0.0100% per 8h is long-biased but not extreme, so there's no imminent squeeze risk on the long side. Open interest at 905.6K confirms real positioning behind this move.
I'm long-biased here. A 1H close above 2,520 clears the final resistance visible in this window and puts the 2,548 cluster directly in play as a short-term target — that cluster acts as a magnet and then a potential pause point. I'm not chasing at 2,505; I'm waiting for the close above 2,520 to confirm the breakout before adding, with invalidation at the 2,435 cluster below — a close there means the recovery failed and the range top rejected again.
LONG SCENARIO
Confirmation
2,520
1H close above 2,520 — clears the swing high resistance from the post-breakout range and confirms the higher-low / higher-high sequence is extending; the 2,435 cluster below becomes a floor.
Invalidation
2,435
1H close below 2,435 — losing this cluster means the breakout attempt failed and price is back inside the chop; the recovery thesis is dead.
Target 1
2,548
Dense liquidation cluster just above; first magnet after the breakout, likely to fuel and then pause the move.
Target 2
2,651
Next dense liquidation cluster above 2,548; measured from the 2,435–2,520 base, the projection lands in this zone.
Risk/Reward
(2,548 − 2,520) / (2,520 − 2,435) = 28 / 85 — Target 1 alone is under 1:1, so I'm sizing for Target 2: (2,651 − 2,520) / (2,520 − 2,435) = 131 / 85 = 1.5:1
Resistance: 2,520 / 2,548
Support: 2,435 / 2,343
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.