DOGE · 1H · DOWNTREND
My previous short from Oct 10 hit both targets — 0.0841 and 0.0805 — and that move is fully complete. Price has since printed a low of 0.07607 and sits at 0.07981 now, grinding along the bottom of what has been a sustained downtrend from above 0.10. The daily structure is lower highs and lower lows throughout, and nothing on this 30m/1H window changes that read. There's no base forming here — just a series of lower bounces that keep getting sold. The news context flags 0.08 as a potential rebound zone with whale accumulation chatter, but I'm reading the price action first: every rally into 0.080–0.082 has been absorbed and sold back down. Until I see a higher low print and hold, the bias stays short on bounces.
The liquidation map is informative here. There's a dense cluster at 0.0806 sitting just above current price — that's a natural magnet for a minor squeeze, and it's exactly where I'd expect a bounce to stall. Below, three dense clusters stack at 0.0743, 0.0729, and 0.0711 — those are the fuel for the next leg down if sellers push through. Funding is mildly long-biased at 0.0088% per 8h, not extreme, so there's no crowded-short squeeze risk that would override the structure. Open interest at ~$94.67M with no clear expansion trend suggests this is positions closing rather than fresh conviction building.
My read is to wait for price to squeeze into the 0.0806 dense cluster, then short the rejection back below 0.0798. That's the clean two-step entry aligned with the daily downtrend.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.0800
On a rally to the 0.0800–0.0810 zone, a 1H close back below 0.0798 confirms the rejection and the downtrend continuation.
Invalidation
0.0830
1H close above 0.0830 — that level reclaimed on a close means the bounce has absorbed the overhead supply and the short thesis is off.
Target 1
0.0743
Dense liquidation cluster below; first stall point and primary objective.
Target 2
0.0711
Next dense cluster; where a breakdown finds maximum stop-hunt fuel.
Risk/Reward
(0.0798 − 0.0743) / (0.0830 − 0.0798) = 0.0055 / 0.0032 = 1.7:1
Resistance: 0.0806 / 0.0830
Support: 0.0743 / 0.0711
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.