BTC · 1H · DOWNTREND

The short setup from my last read never triggered — price never rallied into the 76,000–76,500 confirmation zone. What happened instead is price dropped hard to 72,727, hit Target 1 at 73,500 on the way, and has now bounced sharply back to 74,473 on the current candle. That bounce is running straight into the falling EMA 50 at 74,195 and EMA 9 at 74,128 — price has just sliced through both on this last leg up, which is worth noting — but the EMA 200 at 75,071 and the broader resistance zone above are still intact. The daily trend is down, lower highs and lower lows remain the structure, and the news flow confirms it: spot ETFs bleeding $201 million, short-term holders underwater, and $75,700 cited as the level that must reclaim to shift the narrative. I'm not chasing this bounce long — counter-trend against a daily downtrend with the EMA 200 overhead is not where I want to be. The short setup remains my preferred bias, and I'm waiting for the same two-step structure: price needs to rally into resistance before I have anything to work with.

The dense liquidation cluster at 73,404 just below acted as fuel for this bounce — that level is now spent as a magnet for this leg. The next meaningful cluster above sits at 77,475, and that is well above where I'd expect this bounce to reach before rolling over. The confirmation zone I'm watching is the 74,800–75,200 band, where the flipped support, the falling EMA 50, and the declining EMA 200 all converge as resistance. A failure there, confirmed with a 1H close back below 74,500, is the rejection signal that re-activates the short thesis.