BTC · 1H · DOWNTREND

My previous short from the Sep 8 read was stopped out — price closed back above 79,133 before eventually rolling over hard. That stop-out was clean: the squeeze ran, the liquidation cluster at 79,133 got swept, and then sellers came back in force. That's not a broken thesis, that's the stop doing its job. Now price is at 77,292, well below that cluster, and the structure has resolved in the direction I originally called. The Sep 7 daily long is also done — daily close below 78,500 invalidated that read, and price has followed through lower since. I'm looking at a chart that has printed a clear sequence of lower highs from the 82,000 high visible on this chart, broken through the 79,133 zone on the way down, and is now sitting in open air between 77,300 and the next visible structural floor around 75,000. The red dotted horizontal on the chart at roughly 77,200–77,300 is the last visible support before that drop. Price is sitting right on it.

The derivatives tell me longs are still paying shorts at a moderate 0.0100% per 8h — not extreme, but the crowded side is still long, and with price sitting on marginal support and the dense liquidation cluster at 68,913 visible below, a breakdown here has fuel. The dense cluster at 70,925 is the primary magnet if 75,000 gives way. Above, the 79,179 dense cluster is the key overhead magnet — that's where a squeeze would run.

The structure is bearish. Lower highs from 82,000 to 81,000 to 79,000+, now trading at 77,292 on the last horizontal visible on this chart. I'm watching for a close below 77,000 to confirm the level has failed and the next leg down is live.