BTC · 1H · DOWNTREND
Price ran from the ~58,000 lows in late June all the way up to ~67,200 by July 21, then rolled over hard. What I'm looking at now is a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows forming from that 67,200 peak — price is currently sitting at 64,015 after a sharp two-candle flush, and the entire right side of this chart is distribution. The macro context isn't helping either: equities are under pressure with the Dow dropping 400 points, which historically weighs on risk assets including BTC. I'm not buying this dip — the structure is broken, and mid-range longs here have no edge. I'm waiting for a dead-cat bounce into the 64,800–65,200 zone to get short with definition.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
65,200
Rejection at 65,200 with a close back below 64,800 confirms bearish continuation — that zone was prior consolidation support turned resistance, and a failed retest there locks in the lower high structure.
Invalidation
66,000
Structure invalidated on a close above 66,000 — that reclaims the prior breakdown level and shifts the lower-high sequence.
Target 1
63,200
Prior swing low from July 16 area.
Target 2
62,000
Structural support from mid-July consolidation base.
Risk/Reward
(65,200 - 63,200) / (66,000 - 65,200) = 2.5:1
Resistance: 65,200 / 66,000
Support: 63,200 / 62,000
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.