ARB · 1H · DOWNTREND
The structure here is clean and ugly. ARB spiked hard into 0.1020 around July 10, rejected brutally, and has been printing lower highs ever since — every recovery attempt got sold into. The right side of this chart is a textbook distribution rollover: from 0.0900 to 0.0860 to 0.0840, each bounce weaker than the last, and now price is compressing into the 0.0820–0.0840 zone after a sharp leg down from 0.0860. I'm reading this as a bearish continuation setup — the dominant structure is lower highs and lower lows across the entire post-spike decay, and price is currently sitting just above the recent swing low near 0.0820. There's no sign of accumulation, no base building — this is drift with downward pressure. I'm not touching the long side here, and I'm not chasing short either — I want to see a dead-cat bounce into 0.0850–0.0860 before I get positioned.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.0855
Rejection at 0.0855–0.0860 resistance zone with a close back below 0.0840 confirms bearish continuation — that's the prior breakdown level and where the last meaningful supply sits.
Invalidation
0.0900
Structure invalidated above 0.0900 — that reclaims the prior consolidation range and breaks the lower-high sequence.
Target 1
0.0800
Round level and proximity to the recent intraday lows.
Target 2
0.0760
Next visible structural support from the pre-spike base in late June.
Risk/Reward
(0.0860 − 0.0800) / (0.0900 − 0.0860) = 1.5:1
Resistance: 0.0855–0.0860 / 0.0900
Support: 0.0820 / 0.0760
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.