ADA · 1H · DOWNTREND
Both targets from my October 24 short read hit — 0.2019 and then 0.1975 — and price has continued lower, now sitting at 0.1878 with no confirming close required on any of those levels. The structure is clean and ugly: lower highs all the way from 0.2824, no swing low has held, and the daily trend is firmly down. The news noise around Cardano developer activity hasn't moved the price — ADA is under continued selling pressure regardless. My read here is that shorts are crowded and paying longs via negative funding at -0.0122% per 8h, which tells me the positioning is stretched to the short side and a squeeze toward the liquidation clusters above is a real risk — but that doesn't flip the trend, it just means I'm not chasing short at these lows. The dense cluster at 0.1860 is directly below current price and acts as a magnet for a stop hunt; the cluster at 0.1688–0.1720 is the next major objective below if that flush happens.
I'm not short here at 0.1878 — mid-air between the 0.1860 cluster below and 0.1932 resistance above is the worst possible entry. What I want is a rally back into the 0.1932–0.1992 zone, where two dense liquidation clusters sit and where any bounce would naturally stall in this downtrend, then a rejection close to confirm. That's the setup worth taking.
SHORT SCENARIO
Confirmation
0.1932
On a rally to the 0.1932–0.1992 zone, a 1H close back below 0.1920 confirms the rejection.
Invalidation
0.2040
A 1H close above 0.2040.
Target 1
0.1720
Dense liquidation cluster.
Target 2
0.1688
Next cluster below.
Risk/Reward
(0.1920 − 0.1720) / (0.2040 − 0.1920) = 0.0200 / 0.0120 = 1.7:1
Resistance: 0.1932 / 0.1992
Support: 0.1860 / 0.1720
This is not financial advice. Content is AI-generated.